Most Valuable Donkey.

Once upon a Time an OverConfident Entrepreneur backed by some Naive Investors and a Greedy Banker happened to convince an Aggressive Venture Capitalist to start "The Farm" in Nylon Valley.

The OverConfident Entrepreneur recruited some Horses, Donkeys, Hogs and Cows to work on the Farm. He opened Bank Accounts for all the Animals with the Greedy Banker. Donkeys worked on the Farm, Hogs were on The Bench, Cows did the Dairy for the House and Horses took The Produce from the Farm to the Village.

The Naive Investors got Shares, Greedy Banker got Bank Accounts, Aggressive Venture Capitalist got some progress, Horses / Cows got Credit Cards and Donkeys / Hogs got Debit Cards. All was going well and that kept everybody Interested and Happy. Season started, Donkeys worked really hard in The Farm and brought a very good Produce.

Horses took the Produce to the Village and slowly a good word spread about the Quality of Produce of The Farm. Villagers started tagging the livestock with the name of "The Farm". Donkeys were happy and proud to be recognized as a part of The Farm. Soon the Entreprenuer gave Fat PayChecks to the Horses and Cows, Fooled more Naive Investors to back him for buying a bigger Barren Land adjacent to The Farm and get rid of the Aggressive Venture Capitalist.

The Greedy Banker saw an Opportunity and started giving Home / Car Loans to Horses and Cows and Credit Cards to Donkeys and Hogs for Higher Interest Rates. This opened up a "New Blue Ocean" in the Village - Bars, Clubs, Movie Theatres and Shopping Malls raised their price tags. Horses and Cows were able to afford the Prices, though it was tough for Donkeys and Hogs, they also joined the Band Wagon and burnt their Pay Checks. New Entreprenuers saw the opportunity and started more Farms around the Nylon Valley. New Jobs, New Banks, New Businesses and New Competition. There was abundance and Wolves started migrating to Nylon Valley.

To motivate the Donkeys at work the OverConfident Entreprenuer rolled his dice and started recognizing some Donkeys as "Most Valuable DumbAss Donkeys of The Farm" every Quarter. Some really DumbAss Donkeys got the recognition, some donkeys tried for the recognition and the left over Donkeys made friends with the Hogs on The Bench. He also introduced a program to send some Donkeys onsite to The Village along with the Horses. This was the biggest motivator for the DumbAss Donkeys and they worked their asses to turn the Barren Land into Green.

Though DumbAss Donkeys deserved a promotion, new Ponys were recruited to manage Donkeys on the Farm. Hogs still enjoyed The Bench playing Basket Ball and Swimming in the Lake. Bystander Wolves in the Village enticed some LiveStock to change Farms for a better Pay Check. Most Hogs used the Brand name of the firm and started doing Horse Jobs. Some intelligent Horses, Ponys, Cows and Donkeys also jumped Boats. But The Most Valuable DumbAss Donkeys were still Day Dreaming about their Onsite, never left The Farm and ignored their Opportunities in hand.

Seasons changed, and over time the Cultural distinction between Horses, Ponys, Donkeys, Cows and Hogs got Diluted. It became difficult to distinguish Hogs from Horses. Greedy Banker found it difficult to recover loans from the animals. Because of the Growth and Competition even the Quality of Produce of The Farm fell rapidly. The OverConfident Entreprenuer was unable to eat the bullet. He fired all the Hogs on The Bench. Got rid of most of the Donkeys and Horses in the Farm. He made those Most Valuable DumbAss Donkeys do the whole work.

There was a recession in Nylon Valley and all animals started migrating to other Jobs / living on unemployment benefits. All DumbAss Donkeys got burnt with extra work. The Ponys threatned the DumbAss Donkeys by showing Pink Slips.

In the End, Entreprenuer, Investors, Banker, Venture Capitalist, Other Businesses, Horses, Hogs, Cows, Ponys and some Not Very Valuable Donkeys all made Money. Inspite of all the Hard Work, the MostValuable DumbAss Donkeys retired of Old Age. They never made it to Onsite and never made any Money.

Finally:
Dumb Asses live lives with Fear of Losing Donkey Work.

Banker To The Poor

The Simplest and the Most Effective Solution to a very Complex Problem hides in the last place we would ever look for..!!

This is one of my Favourite books. I came across this one accidentally, before reading this I thought I knew enough about Micro Lending, my definition of Micro Lending was giving loans to Poor People in Villages from the Tax Payers money and write them off as Bad Debt.. :(.

Ah...!! How terribly wrong I was. This book is a 300 Page journey through the life of Muhammad Yunus from Bangladesh to America and back to Bangladesh - Three Share Farm experiment - Problems of Jobra women - Birth of Grameen bank - Grameen's troubles in learning to walk and run - The impact it made in the whole world - Bill Clinton's interest in the Program - Financial problems of Grameen... and its Success.

The Idea of Grameen is Simple [Because Muhammad found it and proved it]. All Poor women in the village are divided into groups of 5 each. Each one of them will give a test, if any one women in the group fails the test, the loan is revoked. So there is enough pressure in the group to succeed which makes all 5 of them move forward. Then all of them are give a very small loan. If any one of the group member fails to repay on time - the loan for the whole group is revoked. Hence enough pressure is created in the group again to repay.

Finally, there is no need for a hi-fi 'Rocket Science' to solve most of the complex problems in the world.. Just look for a Simple Solution which hides in the last place we would ever look for..!!

Category 5 Storm - Layoff

Hurricane in Wall Street..!!

We could see Dark Clouds far approaching our Workplace. There were High Winds of Gossips making a roaring n howling sound creating a strong aura of fear. Weathermen in our Team saw the budget indicators and they are predicting that a Category 5 Storm is developing in the Gulf of Charlotte, North Carolina could cross the shore of our Office anytime next week. They named it "Layoff". The storm is estimated to take around 5000 victims.

There were similar storms all across America in various workplaces taking a toll of around 2million jobs till date. It is still the beginning of the year and the Economy is showing its worse. The taste of a layoff might be bitter.. but still bitter is also a taste.... I told myself better get used to it.

Though there was pressure all around.. my thoughts were running in a different direction... I was feeling like going home.. spend time with family.. go on my Dream Trek - Mt Everest Base Camp... Call it "Time to Celebrate Recession"..Pool a group and go to Goa... "Crack some Pot and Smoke some Weed..." What not... :)

My only Confidence is.... Though there may not be 100,000 Jobs in the market after 3 months when I come back... but all I need is Just One.. and some how I am convinced that I can do something for living.... "Greed rules Wall St... May be I dont belong here".

With all these Dark Clouds and High Tides - The Sailor began his Journey. Brother Barack is coming up with interesting ideas to stimulate the Economy and create more Jobs. I wish him Luck.

Finally, Just accept whatever we get and be happy bcoz..
"Nobody is a Virgin in this World... Life F*cks everbody... some early... some late".

Disgrace Is Our New Grace - No No.. Hold on..!!

I am that kind of a Guy whose Brain cannot process Equations rationally. My thoughts go this way:

• If I run out of Beer I say - Coke is my New Corona.
• If I lose Money in Stocks I say - Loss is my New Profit.
• If I got to take Bus for a reason I say - Bus is my New Car.

But it is against anybody's Identity and Living to say "Disgrace is My New Grace".

This is what has happened with Ramalinga Raju, I personally felt very bad for him when he had to go to prison and Media gave Extra Coverage on his Breakfast, Shower and Cellmates.

Couple of Interesting things here:

1. If Mr Raju was a real Conman, he could have covered the whole mess he made by declaring a huge Loss in the Previous Quarter.
2. He could have sent a wave of Layoffs and fired those Ficticious Satyamites on the Payroll. But he dint do that.
3. Had he sensed the Great Fall, rather than admiting facts and going to Jail, he would have resigned from the CEO position in Mid 2008 itself.

My HorseSense says that he did not have enough Political contacts in the State, otherwise he could have well managed the defecit and bought more time for himself and the Corporate. With the level of Scams and Election Spending happenning in the Country, raising 5Billion for a month for a Man of Raju's level is not difficult.

God Only knows, but nobody can kill their own baby... and Raju is no exception.

Yesterday, a good friend of mine told me [before I read the news] - "Somebody out there heard you..!!". Yes Government is going to Bailout Satyam. Some how, I was happy for the fact that the New Year is giving another PayCheck to Satyamites rather than a PinkSlip.

First Rule of Business - Always Protect ur Investment

The New Year has come and everybody wished me a lot of Good Things. I started to work normal hours as usual from Day 5 of the year. And my Chronic Disease started showing its symptoms after holidays again... Forget work.... Boom Satyam - Maytas deal got busted and shares are down by 57% [This was previous year actually] and it seemed like a Free Roller Coaster ride...!!

Nothing is Free in this World mate - Anything that looks free is not free in reality - It is just a State of Mind that makes one think that something is free.

So as usual, I picked up some SAY for $5... not a bad pick haah..!! Given it a week, came back from holidays and Booyah... its $9. I live and do anything to retain my title - "Stupid". Yes, I did not book any profits... My Cerebellum always said click SELL.. but my Cerebrum said HOLD... :(

I knew the Rule.. but knowing the Rule is not enough.... Satyam went bust and the ADR was suspended from Trading... I started my legacy with a Fresh Loss in the New Year

Why Not Govt Bailout SATYAM..??

We are reading about the Satyam Fiasco and getting worried about the future. But if we remember last year, we have seen the fall of Financial Giants like Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers and AIG.

What did the American Govt do...?? Take out Tax Payer's money and rescue the Companies... Why dont we do a similar thing here.

Indian Government should Bail out Satyam Computers and make it Satyam India Computers. There by India will become the First country in the world to have a State Owned IT Company. They can rescue all the 53000 Employees and poor Share holders like me across the world. India can use the services of Satyam Computers to develop home grown applications for all Government offices along with making money from the Clients. One more thing, its Election Time in India and the current government will make a land slide victory with votes from Educated people. Its a win win situation for all... Employees win, Shareholders win and Govt wins...!! What do you guyz think..??

Haha... what a brilliant idea... I pat my own back for my sTuPiDiTy.. :) :)

BailOut.. oops SignOut.

The Beginning of The End

I was reading an Article in Economist.com about the Credit Crisis in Emerging Markets. In the views section people are still thinking that India is not effected much and it is just the corrupt American banks that got busted. There was much boasting about surreal achievements and Economic Growth of India. But, I had a different opinion.

Are we not seeing The Beginning of The End...??

May be we need 6 more months to see the true picture of the Economic crisis in the Emerging markets.

In India every Home / Personal / Other kind of loan given by the banks to the people are 'SUB PRIME'. There is nothing like Credit history for anybody there. Till last year a Fresh College Graduate with 6 month payslips got a Home loan to buy a 200 SqYr land in a remote non living area at an unaffordable price .

Lets assume that the Economic Turmoil is going to continue for another 6months or a year. What do you think is going to happen?

1. Job losses / Salary cuts.
2. Investment losses in Stock Markets.
3. Rising commodity prices -- Inflation.

Defaulter toll goes up. Already the Interest rates are quite high. Companies in US are planning to reduce salaries for their employees to cut costs. This impacts the Job holders pay checks in India as well and paying loan becomes a nightmare.

It takes time for the Indicators to show up RED because till the Defaulter count goes up to 10% or so, they do not come into the radars or news and media.So I would assume wait for 6 more months and see the real picture of Credit crisis.

We Pay for our own Greed

The ongoing Economic Crisis, Inflation, Stock Market crash and the turmoil in the Wall Street has broken the Backbone of many Investors like me back home. The question that is haunting me.. 'Am I Paying for my Greed....??'

Back then, a couple of years ago, our own 'Visonary' Capitalist Reliance came up with a huge 3 Billion Dollar IPO. It got oversubscribed to the max. FII's, QIB's, Retail Investors, Mom and Pop shops, you name an X - subscribed for the IPO. When these Foreign Investors were playing big in the field we were Cheer leading for them. We were thinking that India is Growing, we are the best Developing Economy, there is no looking back and all Bull$hit.

Question:
Had there been a Red Tape, FII's are not allowed to Invest in Primary Markets, would there been a sufficient Subscription for Reliance at all...??

Answer:
A simple 2 letter 'No'. Though we have enough money, we do not have enough confidence to raise 3 Billion. Domestic Investors would not have fulfilled "Mere Baap ka sapna.."

What happened now..??
Dollar is 49/- now. Lame question - How is it related in the current context...??

FII's withdrew their Investments. Dollars are going out of the country and that is the reason for the spike in Exchange Rate. They sold all those Reliance shares which are not worth more than a Toilet paper now in the Secondary Market to all of us and took their return flights.

Greed Blinds Wisdom and We pay for own Greed.